BSE: 540180 | NSE: VBL | Consumer Food | Large Cap
Past 10 year's financial track record analysis by Moneyworks4me indicates that Varun Beverages Ltd is a good quality company.
The key valuation ratios of Varun Beverages Ltd's currently when compared to its past seem to suggest it is in the Overvalued zone.
The Price Trend analysis by MoneyWorks4Me indicates it is Semi Strong which suggest that the price of Varun Beverages Ltd is likely to Rise-somewhat in the short term. However, please check the rating on Quality and Valuation before investing.
Data adjusted to bonus, split, extra-ordinary income, rights issue and change in financial year end.
Value Creation Index Colour Code Guide ⓘ
| Dec'15 | Dec'16 | Dec'17 | Dec'18 | Dec'19 | Dec'20 | Dec'21 | Dec'22 | Dec'23 | Dec'24 | TTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROCE % ⓘ | 13.1% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 17.7% | 9.7% | 17.1% | 27.5% | 29% | 25.2% | - |
| Value Creation Index ⓘ | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | - |
Growth Parameters ⓘGrowth Parameters Colour Code Guide ⓘ | |||||||||||
| Sales ⓘ | 3,394 | 3,861 | 4,004 | 5,105 | 7,130 | 6,450 | 8,823 | 13,173 | 16,043 | 20,008 | 20,008 |
| Sales YoY Gr. | - | 13.8% | 3.7% | 27.5% | 39.7% | -9.5% | 36.8% | 49.3% | 21.8% | 24.7% | - |
| Adj EPS ⓘ | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 8 | 7.7 |
| YoY Gr. | - | -68.6% | 331.3% | 63.8% | 43.4% | -27.2% | 77.1% | 127.3% | 39.6% | 19.9% | - |
| BVPS (₹) ⓘ | 1 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 15.7 | 21.3 | 49.1 | 49.1 |
| Adj Net Profit ⓘ | 115 | 49.5 | 213 | 348 | 525 | 382 | 679 | 1,542 | 2,155 | 2,688 | 2,594 |
| Cash Flow from Ops. ⓘ | 555 | 826 | 620 | 1,000 | 1,308 | 1,012 | 1,231 | 1,790 | 2,391 | 3,381 | - |
| Debt/CF from Ops. ⓘ | 3.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | - |
CAGR Colour Code Guide ⓘ
| 9 Years | 5 Years | 3 Years | 1 Years | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales ⓘ | 21.8% | 22.9% | 31.4% | 24.7% | ||||
| Adj EPS ⓘ | 35.7% | 37.5% | 56.1% | 19.9% | ||||
| BVPSⓘ | 54.3% | 36.8% | 57.5% | 130% | ||||
| Share Price | - | 59.1% | 63.1% | -2% | ||||
Performance Ratio Colour Code Guide ⓘ
| Dec'15 | Dec'16 | Dec'17 | Dec'18 | Dec'19 | Dec'20 | Dec'21 | Dec'22 | Dec'23 | Dec'24 | TTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity % ⓘ | 22.6 | 4.2 | 12.3 | 18.5 | 19.7 | 11.2 | 17.9 | 33.6 | 35.8 | 22.8 | 15.6 |
| Op. Profit Mgn % ⓘ | 19.1 | 21 | 21.1 | 21.5 | 21.7 | 19 | 19.2 | 21.8 | 23.5 | 24.4 | 23 |
| Net Profit Mgn % ⓘ | 3.4 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 7 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 13 |
| Debt to Equity ⓘ | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Working Cap Days ⓘ | 66 | 72 | 79 | 75 | 60 | 82 | 83 | 83 | 90 | 90 | 64 |
| Cash Conv. Cycle ⓘ | 20 | 20 | 24 | 23 | 13 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 26 | 18 |
Sales growth is growing at healthy rate in last 3 years 31.38%
Net Profit is growing at healthy rate in last 3 years 56.10%
Debt to equity has declined versus last 3 years average to 0.14
Sales growth is good in last 4 quarters at 26.25%
Return on Equity has declined versus last 3 years average to 15.60%
| Standalone | Consolidated | |
|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS (₹) | 6.9 | 7.7 |
| TTM Sales (₹ Cr.) | 14,349 | 20,008 |
| BVPS (₹.) ⓘ | 48.9 | 49.1 |
| Reserves (₹ Cr.) ⓘ | 15,864 | 15,915 |
| P/BV ⓘ | 11.06 | 11.02 |
| PE ⓘ | 78.83 | 70.50 |
| From the Market | |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Low / High (₹) | 419.40 / 682.84 |
| All Time Low / High (₹) | 20.22 / 682.84 |
| Market Cap (₹ Cr.) | 1,82,925 |
| Equity (₹ Cr.) | 676.4 |
| Face Value (₹) | 2 |
| Industry PE ⓘ | 59 |
| Mar'24 | YoY Gr. Rt. % | Jun'24 | YoY Gr. Rt. % | Sep'24 | YoY Gr. Rt. % | Dec'24 | YoY Gr. Rt. % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (₹ Cr.)ⓘ | 4,398 | 11.3 | 7,334 | 28.7 | 4,932 | 25.3 | 3,818 | 39.8 |
| Adj EPS (₹) ⓘ | 4.1 | 25.2 | 9.6 | 26 | 1.9 | 24 | 0.6 | 34.2 |
| Op. Profit Mgn % ⓘ | 22.48 | 229 bps | 27.15 | 64 bps | 23.34 | 94 bps | 15.19 | -13 bps |
| Net Profit Mgn % ⓘ | 12.46 | 136 bps | 17.21 | -43 bps | 12.75 | -32 bps | 5.14 | -12 bps |
| Pledged * | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Particulars | Q3 FY24 (Rs. Cr) | YoY Trend | Comments |
| Revenue | 3,871 | +22% | Led by 15%/18% growth in Indian and international market |
| EBITDA | 882 | +26% | |
| EBITDA Margin | 23% | +100 bps | driven by gross margin expansion and operational efficiency |
| PAT | 514 | +30% |
Robust performance. Net realisation per case increase by ~6% to Rs. 176
About the Industry: -In India, the soft drinks industry is relatively underdeveloped with low penetration. The per capita consumption is far lower than global averages, despite double-digit growth rates. With population size of 132 crores, rising urbanization, disposable income and favourable demographics there is tremendous potential for growth for Indian beverage industry. India's soft drinks consumption at 44 bottles per capita in 2016, is relatively lower compared to matured markets like the U.S. (1,496 bottles), Mexico (1,489 bottles) and Germany (1,221 bottles) and even the developing markets like Brazil (537 bottles). This under-penetration is likely to correct with consumption expected to almost double to 84 bottles by 2021.
About the Company: -Varun Beverages ltd (VBL) is the second largest PepsiCo’s global franchisee (outside the US) engaged in producing and distributing a wide range of CSD (Carbonated Soft Drink) and NCD (Non-carbonated Drink) including packaged drinking water. The business of the company comprise of manufacturing, warehousing & distributing and customer management for Pepsico products. Most of the categories in which the Company operates in are under-penetrated and therefore it is continuously investing in market development.
VBL enjoys a strong, symbiotic and longstanding relationship with PepsiCo spanning over 25 years, since their entry in India, accounting for ~80% of its sales volumes in India. It has presence across 6 countries, 3 in the Indian Subcontinent (India, Sri Lanka, and Nepal) contributing ~80% to revenues, while 3 in Africa (Morocco, Zambia and Zimbabwe contributing ~20%.
VBL’s optimistic approach of continuous expansion in highly under-penetrated areas has created its presence in 5 overseas territories (excluding India), 27 Indian states, 7 UT with strong Pepsico brand recall. Recently, the company has acquired franchisee rights for West and South territories of India along with established an in-house production capacity at Pathankot for Tropicana products with net capex Rs. 2,350 crores.
We believe that Varun Beverages as such doesn't have a very strong competitive advantage and earn return on equity slightly higher than cost of equity. But thanks to it has sticky customer, scale it can retain this ROE sustainably. We expect debt to remain moderate to take advantage of sticky cash flows from existing operations and long term agreement with customer.
VBL is run by RJ Corp, a group headed by Mr. Ravi Jaipuria. RJ Corp also manages YUM Brands chains Pizza Hut and KFC under the company name Devyani International that might be listed on exchanges by next year.
Results: Varun beverages reported a year on year increase of 49% in sales and whopping 54% jump in operating profit in Q2FY20. Core business growth of 17% year on year and the remaining was from acquisition in newer geographies.
Outlook: VBL has concluded acquisition of two production facilities - one in Dharwad, Karnataka and second at Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu for a total consideration of Rs. 95 crore. Currently, VBL is operating at 60% of capacity utilization and has no further plans to look at any major capital expansion for at least next two years. The company is aiming at better capacity utilization for next few years which could definitely enhance the return on capital employed (RoCE) for the group company.
Due to large opportunity size of consumption in India, also the brand recall of Pepsico products is good in India. We see good reinvestment opportunities as it expands in newer geographies and grow through better penetration with availability of electricity in hinterlands like UP and MP. We think the pace of growth of the company would remain intact. We are cautious due to limited listing history and slightly expensive valuation of the stock to take risk. We would consider having some exposure after a slight correction to ensure better upside.
| Company Name | CMP(₹) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varun Beverages | 548.7 | 7.8 (1.4%) | Large Cap | 20,008 | 7.7 | 13.6 | 70.5 | 11 |
| Nestle | 2,221.4 | 36.7 (1.7%) | Large Cap | 19,515 | 34.9 | 16.1 | 62.6 | 45 |
| Britannia Inds | 4,831.3 | 111.3 (2.4%) | Large Cap | 16,301 | 89.6 | 12.4 | 52.7 | 30 |
| PARTICULARS | Dec'15 | Dec'16 | Dec'17 | Dec'18 | Dec'19 | Dec'20 | Dec'21 | Dec'22 | Dec'23 | Dec'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 3,394 | 3,861 | 4,004 | 5,105 | 7,130 | 6,450 | 8,823 | 13,173 | 16,043 | 20,008 |
| Operating Expenses ⓘ | 2,756 | 3,063 | 3,165 | 4,088 | 5,667 | 5,236 | 7,146 | 10,367 | 12,410 | 15,264 |
| Manufacturing Costs | 502 | 616 | 596 | 819 | 1,103 | 1,140 | 1,404 | 2,011 | 2,379 | 3,003 |
| Material Costs | 1,716 | 1,738 | 1,810 | 2,244 | 3,219 | 2,764 | 4,035 | 6,261 | 7,405 | 8,905 |
| Employee Cost | 324 | 421 | 463 | 583 | 811 | 890 | 1,008 | 1,217 | 1,447 | 1,885 |
| Other Costs ⓘ | 213 | 289 | 297 | 442 | 534 | 442 | 700 | 878 | 1,180 | 1,472 |
| Operating Profit ⓘ | 638 | 798 | 838 | 1,017 | 1,462 | 1,215 | 1,677 | 2,806 | 3,633 | 4,744 |
| Operating Profit Margin (%) | 18.8% | 20.7% | 20.9% | 19.9% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 19.0% | 21.3% | 22.6% | 23.7% |
| Other Income ⓘ | 40 | 36 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 37 | 68 | 39 | 79 | 121 |
| Interest ⓘ | 170 | 435 | 215 | 223 | 324 | 294 | 207 | 204 | 292 | 483 |
| Depreciation ⓘ | 317 | 322 | 347 | 385 | 489 | 529 | 531 | 617 | 681 | 947 |
| Exceptional Items ⓘ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Profit Before Tax ⓘ | 191 | 79 | 291 | 434 | 696 | 363 | 1,007 | 2,024 | 2,739 | 3,433 |
| Tax ⓘ | 79 | 31 | 77 | 134 | 224 | 5 | 261 | 474 | 638 | 799 |
| Profit After Tax | 112 | 48 | 214 | 300 | 472 | 357 | 746 | 1,550 | 2,102 | 2,634 |
| PAT Margin (%) | 3.3% | 1.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 13.2% |
| Adjusted EPS (₹) | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 7.7 |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (%) | 0% | 0% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 13% |
| PARTICULARS | Dec'15 | Dec'16 | Dec'17 | Dec'18 | Dec'19 | Dec'20 | Dec'21 | Dec'22 | Dec'23 | Dec'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Equity and Liabilities | ||||||||||
| Shareholders Fund | 674 | 1,693 | 1,769 | 1,998 | 3,328 | 3,524 | 4,080 | 5,099 | 6,928 | 16,591 |
| Share Capital ⓘ | 584 | 182 | 183 | 183 | 289 | 289 | 433 | 650 | 650 | 676 |
| Reserves ⓘ | 91 | 1,511 | 1,587 | 1,816 | 3,040 | 3,235 | 3,647 | 4,450 | 6,278 | 15,915 |
| Minority Interest | 0 | -13 | -1 | 8 | 31 | 65 | 117 | 113 | 148 | 130 |
| Debt | 1,832 | 1,629 | 2,045 | 2,358 | 2,823 | 2,693 | 2,442 | 2,355 | 4,192 | 2,127 |
| Long Term Debt | 1,580 | 1,218 | 1,691 | 1,980 | 2,355 | 1,980 | 1,813 | 1,727 | 3,189 | 841 |
| Short Term Debt | 252 | 411 | 353 | 378 | 467 | 714 | 628 | 628 | 1,003 | 1,287 |
| Trade Payables | 185 | 275 | 191 | 317 | 478 | 511 | 712 | 824 | 758 | 1,560 |
| Others Liabilities ⓘ | 1,740 | 1,240 | 1,272 | 1,317 | 1,716 | 1,654 | 2,229 | 3,227 | 3,161 | 2,715 |
| Total Liabilities ⓘ | 4,431 | 4,824 | 5,276 | 5,998 | 8,376 | 8,447 | 9,579 | 11,618 | 15,187 | 23,124 |
Fixed Assets | ||||||||||
| Gross Block | 4,632 | 5,159 | 5,635 | 6,172 | 8,745 | 9,033 | 9,410 | 10,441 | 12,445 | 18,802 |
| Accumulated Depreciation | 1,137 | 1,443 | 1,654 | 1,785 | 2,265 | 2,624 | 3,099 | 3,509 | 4,036 | 5,400 |
| Net Fixed Assetsⓘ | 3,496 | 3,715 | 3,981 | 4,387 | 6,479 | 6,409 | 6,311 | 6,932 | 8,409 | 13,402 |
| CWIP ⓘ | 38 | 96 | 145 | 352 | 64 | 67 | 497 | 607 | 1,922 | 1,167 |
| Investmentsⓘ | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 60 |
| Inventories | 425 | 490 | 439 | 578 | 882 | 929 | 1,448 | 1,994 | 2,151 | 2,791 |
| Trade Receivables | 98 | 131 | 150 | 128 | 173 | 242 | 221 | 299 | 359 | 846 |
| Cash Equivalents | 58 | 66 | 94 | 93 | 171 | 190 | 337 | 285 | 460 | 2,450 |
| Others Assetsⓘ | 314 | 320 | 458 | 448 | 608 | 611 | 766 | 1,501 | 1,865 | 2,409 |
| Total Assets ⓘ | 4,431 | 4,824 | 5,276 | 5,998 | 8,376 | 8,447 | 9,579 | 11,618 | 15,187 | 23,124 |
| PARTICULARS | Dec'15 | Dec'16 | Dec'17 | Dec'18 | Dec'19 | Dec'20 | Dec'21 | Dec'22 | Dec'23 | Dec'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow From Operating Activity ⓘ | 555 | 826 | 620 | 1,000 | 1,308 | 1,012 | 1,231 | 1,790 | 2,391 | 3,381 |
| PBT ⓘ | 191 | 77 | 290 | 431 | 692 | 363 | 1,007 | 2,024 | 2,740 | 3,435 |
| Adjustment ⓘ | 454 | 743 | 584 | 692 | 821 | 838 | 618 | 725 | 992 | 1,343 |
| Changes in Working Capital ⓘ | -42 | 64 | -197 | -50 | -85 | -111 | -269 | -585 | -673 | -669 |
| Tax Paid ⓘ | -48 | -58 | -57 | -73 | -120 | -78 | -124 | -373 | -668 | -728 |
| Cash Flow From Investing Activity ⓘ | -300 | -1,048 | -745 | -873 | -2,319 | -471 | -1,011 | -1,705 | -3,290 | -4,317 |
| Capex | -610 | -780 | -516 | -809 | -733 | -536 | -815 | -1,750 | -3,194 | -3,740 |
| Net Investments | 307 | 0 | -140 | -49 | -1,633 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -31 | -238 |
| Others ⓘ | 3 | -268 | -89 | -15 | 47 | 65 | -195 | 45 | -65 | -339 |
| Cash Flow From Financing Activityⓘ | -236 | 230 | 159 | -84 | 1,107 | -574 | -178 | -18 | 985 | 2,954 |
| Net Proceeds from Shares ⓘ | 0 | 701 | 4 | 1 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7,512 |
| Net Proceeds from Borrowing ⓘ | -409 | 17 | 484 | 732 | 560 | -460 | 214 | 340 | 1,125 | -3,737 |
| Interest Paid ⓘ | -141 | -219 | -156 | -189 | -303 | -277 | -179 | -172 | -269 | -465 |
| Dividend Paid ⓘ | 0 | 0 | -46 | -46 | -69 | -72 | -108 | -162 | -227 | -325 |
| Others ⓘ | 314 | -269 | -129 | -583 | 20 | 236 | -104 | -24 | 352 | -31 |
| Net Cash Flow ⓘ | 19 | 8 | 33 | 42 | 96 | -33 | 43 | 67 | 86 | 2,018 |
| PARTICULARS | Dec'15 | Dec'16 | Dec'17 | Dec'18 | Dec'19 | Dec'20 | Dec'21 | Dec'22 | Dec'23 | Dec'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratios | ||||||||||
| ROE (%) | 60.84 | 5.01 | 12.37 | 15.92 | 17.73 | 10.43 | 19.62 | 33.77 | 34.95 | 22.4 |
| ROCE (%) | 13.09 | 15.44 | 12.13 | 14.23 | 17.67 | 9.73 | 17.14 | 27.47 | 28.97 | 25.18 |
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 1.01 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.93 | 1.2 | 0.91 | 1.03 | 1.3 | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| PAT to CFO Conversion(x) | 4.96 | 17.21 | 2.9 | 3.33 | 2.77 | 2.83 | 1.65 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.28 |
| Working Capital Days | ||||||||||
| Receivable Days | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| Inventory Days | 33 | 37 | 38 | 36 | 31 | 43 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 42 |
| Payable Days | 39 | 48 | 47 | 41 | 45 | 65 | 55 | 45 | 39 | 48 |
Varun Beverages is the second largest franchisee in the world (outside US) of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo and a key player in the beverage industry. The company produce and distribute a wide range of CSDs, as well as a large selection of NCBs, including packaged drinking water. PepsiCo CSD brands sold by the company include Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Seven-Up, Mirinda Orange, Mirinda Lemon, Mountain Dew, Seven-Up Nimbooz Masala Soda, Evervess Soda, Duke’s Soda and Sting. PepsiCo NCB brands sold by the company include Tropicana (100%, Essentials & Delight), Tropicana Slice, Tropicana Frutz, Seven-Up Nimbooz, Gatorade and Quaker Oat Milk as well as packaged drinking water under the brand Aquafina. In addition, the company also been granted the franchise for Ole brand of PepsiCo products in Sri Lanka.
The company has been associated with PepsiCo since the 1990s and has over two and half decades consolidated its business association with PepsiCo, increasing the number of PepsiCo licensed territories and sub-territories covered by the company, producing and distributing a wider range of PepsiCo beverages, introducing various SKUs in its portfolio, and expanding its distribution network. The company has been granted franchisees for various PepsiCo products spread across 27 States and 7 Union Territories (except Jammu & Kashmir and Andhra Pradesh) in India.
Although, India is the company’s largest market, it has also been granted the franchise for various PepsiCo products for the territories of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Zambia and Zimbabwe. VBL has several manufacturing plants in India and in international geographies. In addition, the company has set up backward integration facilities for production of preforms, crowns, corrugated boxes, plastic crates and shrink-wrap films in certain of its production facilities to ensure operational efficiencies and quality standards. The company is part of the RJ Corp group, a diversified business conglomerate with interests in beverages, quick-service restaurants, dairy and healthcare.
Business area of the company
The company is franchisee of CSDs and NCBs sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo in India and internationally.
Products
The company’s portfolio of beverage products includes some of the best recognized PepsiCo trademarks in the world. Its product portfolio includes CSDs and NCBs.
Carbonated Soft Drinks-
Non-Carbonated Beverages-
Packaged Drinking Water-
Awards
Milestones
MoneyWorks4Me rating and ranking of funds for SIP is available to subscribers only. Moneyworks4Me is not a rating and ranking agency, however it is required that users have a way of selecting funds and building a Portfolio. The method used by it are described below to enable users to understand the logic behind the rating and ranking Subscriber will find more details on this in the various content made available from time to time. In case you need more please write to besafe@moneyworks4Me.com
MoneyWorks4Me rates and ranks mutual funds based on the following data-driven system:
Funds ranking in screeners: Performance Consistency and Quality are two parameters used for ranking funds for SIP. The ranking as follows GG, GO, GR, OG, OO, OR, RG, RO and RR.
With the same color-coded funds, the one with the higher Average 3-year rolling returns (over 5 to 10 years), the number that appears in the Performance tag, ranks higher.
Here is the summary:
The third tag Upside Potential is not relevant for SIP. It is relevant for lumpsum investments in Mutual Funds.
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